A Debate Face-Off and a Court Showdown
Two events now have the potential to shift a steady race: Trump’s announcement Saturday of Judge Amy Coney Barrett as the replacement for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court, and the first general election debate Tuesday night. Trump may well place a third justice on the nation’s highest court, cementing his legacy for a generation. But the politics of doing so don’t necessarily help him in the near term.
The loss of a feminist icon and her seat could be a motivating force for Democratic voters, much as the death of Justice Antonin Scalia in 2016 was for Republicans. The upcoming confirmation battle will also put abortion and the Affordable Care Act back in the spotlight, which risks alienating older Americans and moderate suburban voters the president has been trying to woo, while energizing younger, progressive Democrats who had more enthusiasm for Ginsburg than they do for Biden.
It’s not clear that the replacement pick will be as big a factor for Republicans who have already hitched their wagons to Trump. So far, the death of Ginsburg didn’t appear to have affected the presidential race in Texas, Iowa and Georgia. One upside for Trump: The Senate confirmation battle will give him a story line to compete with his least favorite subject, his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
The debate, meanwhile, is a stage where the president, trailing steadily for months by 7 to 8 points in public polls, has the best shot at shaking up the dynamic of the race. It’s also a high-stakes moment for Biden, a candidate who is barely seen on the campaign trail. But Trump has aided him by lowering expectations of his performance.
