NEW DELHI/DUBAI — India’s push to promote the homegrown Tejas fighter jet on the global stage has suffered a significant setback after the aircraft crashed during a high-profile display at the Dubai Airshow. The accident, which killed Wing Commander Namansh Syal, comes at a critical moment for India’s efforts to position the Tejas as a competitive export product amid rising regional rivalry.
The cause of the crash remains under investigation, though defence analysts say it is too early to draw conclusions. However, the highly public nature of the incident threatens to undermine years of work aimed at boosting the jet’s credibility among potential buyers across Asia, Africa and Latin America.
“The visual impact of a crash at a major air show is severe,” said Douglas A. Birkey of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. “It sends the opposite message of what nations hope to project. Still, history shows that long-term sales depend more on political priorities than isolated mishaps.”
Dubai hosts the world’s third-largest air show after Paris and Farnborough, and crashes at such events have become increasingly rare. Even so, experts expect short-term implications for India’s export plans. A former Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) executive said the Dubai incident “effectively halts export prospects for now,” emphasizing a renewed focus on domestic production.
The Tejas program, launched in the 1980s to replace India’s ageing MiG-21 fleet, has faced delays linked to development hurdles and the global supply chain. HAL has orders for 180 upgraded Tejas Mk-1A jets from the Indian Air Force (IAF), but deliveries have been hampered by engine shortages from GE Aerospace.
With IAF fighter strength down to 29 squadrons—well below the sanctioned 42—the service is exploring stopgap measures. These could include additional French Rafales or new fifth-generation aircraft from the U.S. or Russia, according to defence officials. Around 40 Tejas jets have entered service so far.
Despite the export setback, analysts note that the Tejas remains central to India’s long-term defence ambitions. “Its value extends beyond foreign sales,” said Walter Ladwig of the Royal United Services Institute. “The program is laying the groundwork for India’s future fighter projects and strengthening its aerospace industry.”
The crash also unfolded against the backdrop of India-Pakistan rivalry at the air show. Pakistan showcased its JF-17 Thunder Block III, produced jointly with China, and announced a provisional export deal with an undisclosed partner nation. The JF-17 display included Chinese PL-15E missiles, which U.S. and Indian officials have previously linked to a 2025 aerial engagement involving Indian Rafales.
India, in contrast, has been more cautious with the Tejas. The jet was not deployed in the four-day conflict between the neighbors earlier this year, nor did it take part in the Republic Day flypast due to safety precautions surrounding single-engine aircraft.
As investigations continue in Dubai, defence planners in New Delhi are expected to double down on the Tejas program’s domestic role while recalibrating its near-term export strategy.