As the United States weighs possible military action against Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro is projecting a tone of conciliation, embracing English slogans and calling for peace — a sharp contrast to his earlier disdain for foreign expressions. Yet behind the unexpected shift lies a political structure that experts say remains remarkably resilient despite intensifying U.S. pressure and deepening domestic crises.
Maduro has responded to escalating threats from Washington with public displays of calm, singing John Lennon’s Imagine and promoting the phrase “No War, Yes Peace.” But analysts note that his survival strategy is not rooted in rhetoric. Instead, it is anchored in a rigid system of coercion and reward that has kept military leaders, party elites, and high-ranking officials loyal throughout years of political turmoil.
A System Built on Fear and Favor
Venezuela’s ruling movement, Chavismo, has long used a dual strategy: harsh punishment for disloyalty and lucrative benefits for loyalty. Ronal Rodríguez of Colombia’s Universidad del Rosario explains that external pressure tends to unify the regime rather than weaken it, creating a defensive cohesion that has historically thwarted attempts to oust Maduro.
Corruption networks built under former president Hugo Chávez — and continued under Maduro — ensure that loyal officials can enrich themselves while also shielding the government from sanctions and international isolation. Those accused of disloyalty, especially military officers, risk imprisonment or worse. This loyalty-through-risk system has allowed Maduro to maintain tight control over the armed forces, granting them access to illicit trafficking and smuggling networks in exchange for unwavering allegiance.
“Chavismo has always been able to eliminate actors who rise up against it,” Rodríguez said. “It exposes corruption when needed and rewards loyalty when necessary.”
Military Leadership Remains Firmly in Maduro’s Corner
Opposition leaders, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado, believed the military would abandon Maduro after credible evidence showed he lost the 2024 presidential election. Instead, senior commanders — led by Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López — once again backed the president, replicating their response to the failed 2019 uprising by soldiers loyal to Juan Guaidó.
The second Trump administration has doubled down on pressure, raising the reward for Maduro’s capture to $50 million and labeling the Cartel de los Soles — allegedly led by Maduro — a foreign terrorist organization. Maduro denies the narcoterrorism charges.
Tensions escalated further when the U.S. declared Venezuelan airspace “completely closed,” a move Caracas condemned as a “colonial threat” that Maduro used to rally supporters against foreign aggression.
Loyalty Tested, Loyalty Maintained
U.S. strategy has increasingly focused on undermining Maduro’s inner circle. In September, U.S. forces began destroying boats suspected of carrying drugs in the Caribbean and Pacific, killing more than 80 people. Weeks later, U.S. officials attempted to recruit Maduro’s presidential pilot into a plot to capture the president — a plan the pilot rejected.
“We Venezuelans are cut from a different cloth,” he wrote in a message declining the offer. “The last thing we are is traitors.”
Supporters soon staged large demonstrations in Caracas, culminating in a symbolic ceremony where Maduro raised Simón Bolívar’s jeweled sword and led officials in swearing loyalty to the state.
Political analyst Susan Shirk notes that authoritarian governments often use public displays of unity to deter internal dissent. Showing unified leadership raises the perceived risk for citizens considering protest or defection.
Will U.S. Pressure Backfire?
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the terrorist designation gives Washington additional options, though he has not detailed them. But scholars warn that forceful U.S. action may strengthen, not weaken, Maduro’s hold.
David Smilde of Tulane University argues that Chavismo interprets military pressure as proof of foreign hostility, reinforcing loyalty among its ranks. “If the entire premise is that the Venezuelan armed forces are a drug cartel,” he said, “what motivation would they have to trust the U.S. and participate in regime change?”
A Shrinking Base Still Standing Firm
Venezuela remains mired in economic and social collapse. More than 7.7 million citizens have emigrated, and poverty has spread across the country. Support for the ruling party has plummeted — yet Maduro retains a dedicated core of followers.
For many, loyalty stems from Chávez’s legacy. Zenaida Quintero, a 60-year-old school porter, recalls years of food shortages but insists her support for Maduro is unwavering.
“He was chosen by Chávez,” she said. “We have to remain united. We have to defend ourselves.”
Despite mounting domestic pressure and rising international threats, Maduro’s loyalty-and-punishment model continues to hold. For now, it remains the foundation that keeps his inner circle intact and his presidency alive.