With just weeks remaining before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, Democrats are campaigning aggressively across the country and targeting Republican-held seats that were once considered difficult to win.
National polling has shown Democrats with an advantage on the generic congressional ballot, while President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have remained a significant issue for Republicans. But the political landscape in individual states is more complicated, and New Hampshire illustrates some of the challenges facing both parties.
The state’s open Senate race, competitive House contests and closely divided electorate are drawing national attention as Democrats seek to expand their congressional presence.
New Hampshire Senate Race Takes Center Stage
New Hampshire’s Senate contest is one of the most closely watched races in the state.
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas won his party’s September primary and will face former Republican Sen. John Sununu in November. The race began after three-term Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced that she would not seek another term.
Pappas entered the general election with support from prominent Democratic figures, while Sununu brings previous Senate experience and a well-known political family name. Sununu also received Trump’s endorsement during the Republican primary.
The contest is particularly important because control of the Senate could depend on a small number of competitive races around the country.
A State With a History of Split Political Preferences
New Hampshire does not fit neatly into a single-party political category.
Democrats currently hold the state’s two Senate seats and two House seats, while Republicans control the governor’s office and state legislature. In the 2024 presidential election, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris carried the state over Trump by a relatively narrow margin.
The state also has a large independent voting population, making party identification alone an imperfect guide to election outcomes.
That political mix has made New Hampshire an important testing ground for both parties, particularly in closely contested federal elections.
House Races Add Another Layer
The Senate contest is not the only competitive race attracting attention.
Pappas’ departure from the House has created an open congressional seat. Democrat Stefany Shaheen won the Democratic primary and will face Republican Anthony DiLorenzo in November. Shaheen narrowly won a crowded Democratic primary that included several candidates.
Democratic Rep. Maggie Goodlander is also seeking reelection in the state’s other House district. She defeated a Democratic primary challenger and will face Republican Lily Williams in the general election.
The results of these races will help determine whether New Hampshire’s current congressional delegation remains entirely Democratic or changes after November.
Money and Campaign Organization Matter
Campaign spending is another major factor in the 2026 contests.
National party organizations and outside groups are directing substantial resources toward competitive Senate and House races. Recent changes in campaign-finance rules have also allowed Republican committees to significantly increase coordinated spending with candidates.
That financial environment means candidates in New Hampshire are likely to receive considerable national attention and advertising support as Election Day approaches.
Local Democratic officials have raised concerns about fundraising, messaging and the possibility that national optimism could distract from difficult individual races. Those concerns are part of a broader debate inside the party about how best to compete in states with independent-minded voters.
National Trends Do Not Always Translate Locally
National political indicators provide useful context, but they do not determine the result of individual races.
A September Reuters/Ipsos survey found Democrats leading Republicans by seven percentage points among registered voters on the generic congressional ballot, while Trump’s approval rating stood at 35%. The survey included 1,143 respondents and had a margin of error of three percentage points.
At the same time, candidates face state-specific issues, opponents, fundraising conditions and voter preferences that can produce results different from national trends.
New Hampshire’s independent electorate makes those local factors particularly important.
The Final Weeks Will Be Closely Watched
The November 3 election will determine control of Congress, with Republicans currently holding narrow majorities in both chambers. Democrats are seeking to gain enough seats to change the balance of power, while Republicans are campaigning to maintain their congressional majorities.
New Hampshire will be among the states watched closely because of its open Senate seat and competitive House races.
Rather than providing a simple picture of the national political environment, the state demonstrates how national trends and local political dynamics can intersect in different ways during a midterm election.
