Taiwan’s defense ministry reported a sharp increase in Chinese military activity near the island on Saturday, following a two-week decline that had puzzled analysts.
Officials detected 26 Chinese military aircraft in the vicinity, 16 of which entered Taiwan’s northern, central, and southwestern Air Defense Identification Zone. In addition, seven naval ships were observed operating around the island.
The recent spike followed a period from Feb. 27 to March 5 when no Chinese planes crossed the median line into Taiwan’s ADIZ. Only a few flights were recorded between March 6 and March 10, before the activity resumed in larger numbers.
Observers noted the earlier lull coincided with China’s annual legislative session, but analysts said the timing alone did not fully explain the drop. Some suggested Beijing may have aimed to reduce tensions with Washington ahead of a planned visit by U.S. President Donald Trump to China from March 31 to April 2, though Chinese officials have not confirmed the visit.
Other analysts proposed the pause could signal a shift in China’s military training and modernization, potentially moving toward a new model of joint operations among its forces.
China has long maintained it could seize Taiwan by force if necessary, with near-daily incursions by warplanes and naval vessels. Taiwan’s military has emphasized that it will maintain its defense posture regardless of temporary fluctuations in Chinese flight activity.
Defense Minister Wellington Koo highlighted that Chinese naval operations have remained active in nearby waters despite the temporary decrease in air incursions.
Taiwan and China have been governed separately since 1949, when the Communist Party took control of mainland China following a civil war, and Nationalist forces retreated to Taiwan, which later evolved into a multiparty democracy.
